Ecosystem-Based Forecasts of Recruitment in Two Menhaden Species

The abundance of two small but important fish species—Atlantic and Gulf menhaden—is more predictable than once thought, according to this 2018 study in the journal Fish and Fisheries. The authors came to this conclusion using a method called empirical dynamic modeling (EDM), which relies primarily on patterns in the data to make predictions.  This differs from conventional modeling, which also relies on equations to detect patterns, in part by assuming specific mathematical relationships among variables. The finding has the potential to inform management of two of the largest fisheries in the United States.

Deyle E, Schueller AM, Ye H, Pao GM, Sugihara G. Ecosystem‐based forecasts of recruitment in two menhaden species. Fish and Fisheries. 2018;19:769–781.

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